Here it Comes

Well its taken a while, but Australia has entered the rather exclusive list of countries with Swine flu contamination.

It was only a matter of time I guess but I am finding all the information confusing at best. The media and health authorities have been feeding us lines such as Potentially Fatal and Global Pandemic, then they wonder why people begin to panic.Given the media hype, general world wide alerts, our bombardment with warnings is it any surprise that people are begining to panic at least on the mainland, as schools close. Here in Tasmania complaints about our apathy, relaxed attitude and complacency is leading itself to worry the authorities as most people believe it is little more than the flu or bad cold.

WHAT IS Swine Flu?

The whole situation, looking from the outside, is a complete farse.

The unfortunate fact is our recent and swift enlightenment came about as a direct result of sloppy practices, by those charged with keeping such things out of the country. I am not naive enough to think that it would not arrive here eventually but the circumstances by which we have arrived into this club leaves a lot to be desired.

When the Pacific Dawn made dock in Sydney with 2 children sick on board. Authorities allowed 2000 people to disembark, the resulting infections will climb. Story here

Currently we have 6 people being tested for Swine Flu after arriving home to Tasmania, 5 from cruise liner and one who was in contact with a passenger (a confirmed case), however not only do we have those who left the ship under suspicion, new passengers were allowed to begin their holiday on board.

I certainly hope they get a refund on their fares. The ship has not been allowed to dock in Brisbane and is currently near an Island off Cairnes, as the Government seeks advice as to quarantining the cruise ship, all a bit late I think with 3 crew members and one more passenger on board this lovely incubating bowl, reporting illness.

Even if 500 people where infected and each of those persons came incontacted with 10 people on the way home, that would give a potential daily infection result of 5000 people, these 5000 are in contact with another 10 on the same day resulting in a potential of 50,000 on the first day. We are being told that the infection rate is about 40%, this means at least 20,000 people, so our numbers will rise. Latest here

That being said, there is no need to panic, we are being told and I must say I tend to agree at this stage.

The worry seems to be when it has its second time round, as I pointed out in my previous swine flu post.

Swine Flu mutates with each new transmission, It does not replicate itself 100% changing slightly, so its potential appears to be limitless.

To gain entry into Tasmania you have 2 options either plane o5 boat, either way you are in contact with a large number of persons. Asking a person if they have the flu when then arrive here does seem to be a rather inept way to keep something, which is suppose to be so potentially dangerous, out of our state.

Either this thing is as bad as the World Health is stating and not the result of an over enthusiastic scientist or it isnt. If it is the former, then you would think a far more active action plan would be put in place with passengers who are at risk being quarentined before travel until test results show otherwise.

I do feel the first wave of this virus will be nothing more than a very bad cold, a standard influenza, which kills upto 2500 Australians a year, however second time round I believe it will be very nasty. If we use the only drug available to combat it now as the virus is relatively easy to remove, what will we use when it comes back with an immunity to the drugs. Eradicating completely seems a tall order given its spread, and how easily it appears to be transmitted, it has that part right, so I am guessing that part of the virus continues to be passed on.

There are 2 possible responses as far as I can see:

Either this thing is or has the potential to become as bad as the Spanish Flu.

Or this is overkill and will petter out over time as the Sars Virus, Bird Flu and other recent virus alerts have done.

Either way which ever the case, all we can do is live our lives, take all neccessary precautions that you would if you had the flu, a cold or other contagious illness

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AND DO NOT PANIC.